We have done some modelling to show the different scenarios that could occur with a 4-class and with a 3-class Clyro School. The school needs to reach 91 total pupils for it to be granted funding as a 4-class school under Powys County Council's Fair Funding Formula. Pupils must not be in classes of more than 30 pupils in the Foundation phase (Reception, Year 1 & Year 2), and there is a target set by the Welsh Government of there being no more than 30 pupils in a Key Stage 2 class (Years 3-6). Clyro School's classrooms are also designed for no more than 30 pupils (that's a maximum - not a target). So with up to 90 pupils in the school in uneven year group sizes, dividing them into equal groups of 30 becomes a challenge.
N.B. The information on this page has been produced by the parents, and should be used as a guide only. It may not reflect the views or procedures of the school or it's decision makers.
A 4-Class School
This table shows the school in Jan 2021 of the 2020-21 academic year, and an example of how the class sizes could look in the future if it remained a 4-class school. The figures are based on an average future intake of 12 pupils into Reception in Class 1. They do not include potential new pupils entering other year groups, in particular the potential new pupils from the housing estate being built in Clyro, which will add 13 dwellings to the village and is due for completion later in 2021 (which importantly takes estimated pupil numbers to over 90 by the end of 2021).
A 3-Class School
Looking at this without splitting up any year groups between two classes, there is ONLY ONE option available that does not break the Foundation phase rule of 30 per class. For the 2021-22 year this would mean a school with 87 pupils between:
Class 1 (Reception & Year 1) with 29 pupils [with a Reception intake of 12],
Class 2 (Year 2 & 3) with 20 pupils, and
Class 3 (Years 4, 5 & 6) with 38 pupils.
Class 1 and Class 2 would both have Foundation stage pupils, so could not have more than 30 pupils per class; Class 1 would be very close to this with 29 pupils. The 38 pupils in Class 3 would be in a classroom designed for 30 pupils.
As this would not work, it leads to having to split year groups between classes, as shown in this table (the grey section shows estimated/average Reception intake numbers; 2021-22 intake numbers will be confirmed in April but are believed to be 11 pupils):
You will notice how full the classes become in 2021-22 with 29, 28 and 30 pupils predicted in Class 1, Class 2 and Class 3 respectively.
Then the current (2020 intake) Reception year of 17 pupils gets split once between Class 1 and 2 in 2022-23, and then again between Class 3 and 4 in 2024-25 (after being in a class all together in 2021-22 and 2023-24).
If, in September 2021, there are between 14 and 16 pupils entering in Reception, then Class 1 will be over-capacity without the school having reached the 91 pupil limit; so just two pupils from Year 1 will need to be placed in Class 2 to make a Class 2 of 30 pupils.
Then, in 2022-23 Class 1 and Class 2 could easily be full, meaning just 4 pupils going from Year 4 going into Class 3 to make space for extra pupils from Class 1 to join their Year 2 classmates in Class 2 - leaving just 3 Year 2 Pupils in Class 1 and a school two split year groups and 3 teachers each teaching 3 different year groups in each of their 3 class!
Obviously it would only take one family to join or leave the school for this to all change significantly. The problem is, would there be space to accept more children, or would they have to be turned away?
Finally, here are some more potential scenarios that could easily occur when trying to fit 7 uneven sized year groups into classes of no more than 30, as Powys County Council's Fair Funding Formula dictates: